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CONFLICT PREVENTION PROGRAM
Global Research Projects
The Causes of Conflict in Central America
(completed December 1998, publication forthcoming)This regional research project was part of an overarching global project sponsored by the Netherlands Institute of Foreign Relations (commonly referred to as the Clingendael Institute) that is entitled "The Causes of Conflict in the Third World." Originally conceived to last two years (April 1996-March 1998), the project was extended an additional nine months through December 1998. The global project focuses on three regions of the developing world: South Asia, West Africa, and Central America. The Arias Foundation is responsible for the Central American component of the study, and the Clingendael Institute, in addition to being the official donor, is responsible for the comparative element of the project. (The other counterparts are the International Centre for Ethnic Studies in Kandy, Sri Lanka; the Centre for Advanced Social Science in Port Harcourt, Nigeria; and the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA) in Dakar, Senegal.) The final result will be a four-volume set of books - one per region, including individual country reports and a regional synthesis, plus the comparative analysis - to be published in English by the Clingendael Institute (forthcoming).
Originally understood as analyzing the causes of the specific conflicts that rocked Central America in the 1970s and 1980s, the project evolved gradually into a much more ambitious study of the causes of conflict in general, in an effort to determine what combination of factors (political-military, socioeconomic, external) may lead to conflict and, based on that knowledge, to design early warning systems. The comparative aspect of the project would determine whether such an early warning system could be global or whether it had to be region-specific to compensate for the differences (cultural, historical, ethnic, religious, etc.). Each region also formulated public policy options for the individual countries and the region as a whole, based on the findings in the country and regional reports. These recommendations address specific causes of the actual conflicts that remained unanswered by peace accords as well as new causes of conflict that have emerged either as part of conflict resolution or independently of it.
As part of the global project, a series of regional workshops were held. The first Central American workshop was held in December 1996 and the second and final workshop, which represented the culmination of the Central American component, was held from August 10-12, 1998. Arias Foundation representatives have also participated in the other region's workshops, two held in Sri Lanka (July 1996 and July 1997), one in Nigeria (November 1996), and one in Senegal (October 1998). Finally, a Central American delegation made up of representatives of the Arias Foundation and key researchers who had participated in the project traveled to The Hague in November 1998 for the final project conference.
The Clingendael Institute has chosen to pursue a second phase of the "Causes of Conflict" project, picking up the policy options derived from the first stage and studying them in detail. The goal of this second phase would be to propose specific solutions to specific problems, providing the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other donor agencies with sound policy options for promoting peace and conflict resolution and prevention. Emphasis would also be placed on the South-South dialogue between the regional counterparts and creating a forum for discussion, comparison, and consensus-building. Unlike the first phase, this phase would include local action to promote the policy options that have been designed. The Arias Foundation prepared a 60-page proposal that was then cross-compared with the other region's ideas; the final proposal for the global project is currently being studied by the Dutch Ministry and the project is expected to resume in September 1999.
Lessons from Central America:
A Systematization of the Regional Peace Process
(completed October 1998, publication forthcoming)This project is a complement to the above-mentioned study on the causes of conflict and is formally known as the Conflict Prevention in West Africa project. Given current tensions - both intra- and inter-state - in the region, the Clingendael Institute and CODESRIA (Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa), one of the West African counterparts involved in the original global study, considered it opportune to study the possibilities for containment, conflict prevention, and peace-making in the region. Part of the conceived approach involved analyzing lessons learned and best practices from other regions. Because the Arias Foundation's founder was a key player in the Central American peace process, the Foundation was asked to prepare a systematized account of the Esquipulas II process. The Central American peace process, as well as the peace efforts of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Liberia and of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), were then cross-compared and applied to the current West African context in an effort to find a replicable model.
The project methodology required the research team to assess both the overarching regional process and the different national peace processes, paying close attention to five different variables: mechanisms, mandates, procedures or working methods, actual practices, and conditions for success or failure. Mr. Carlos Murillo, a Costa Rican native and an expert on the regional peace process, collaborated with the Arias Foundation staff to prepare this report. Mr. Murillo had recently finished a much larger volume on the peace process which was used as the basis for this project. Arias Foundation staff members did additional investigation to summarize the individual peace processes in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala. In fact, the research on the national peace processes is a unique product of this project since no one source gathers systematic information on each of the three national processes. Although the papers prepared on the three countries were only inputs for the final report, the Arias Foundation is currently negotiating with the Clingendael Institute to see if this unique resource can be published in a bilingual volume.
The report on the Central American peace process was presented at a workshop hosted by CODESRIA in Senegal in October 1998. The results of the full comparative study are being prepared for publication, in English, by the Clingendael Institute.
Regional Projects
Demilitarization and Permanent Security
Democratic Governance and Development
Index from the Center for Peace and Reconciliation
cpr@arias.or.cr